Analysis by Professor of Law, Danwood Chirwa on Why MCP has Crashed

In the final analysis, this is what brought down the government of Lazarus Chakwera and the MCP. It has to do with the 50% + 1 rule. In typical Kabwila-like reasoning, they thought as follows:

1. We have our base in the centre, and so all we need is the northern vote. Ignore the south completely, including those Ngoni people from Ntcheu.

2. If there is something the northerners hate and fear the most, it is tribalism. In their calculations, fear and hatred of tribalism by the northerners trumps any other grievances they may have.

3. We don’t have to perform because the northerners will forgive our incompetence and lies because of their fear and hatred of the DPP, whose foundation rests on tribalism.

4. To seal the northern vote, recruit a rabble rouser from that region as running mate whom we can easily trample underfoot after we win.

What they got wrong:

1. Those northerners hate tribalism and incompetence in equal measure.

2. Chakwera and the MCP also practised tribalism, and of the worst kind. Tribalism against other tribes and intra-tribalism. The latter is a form of discrimination within the tribe itself. As practised by Chakwera, it took the form of discrimination of fellow Chewa tribesmen based on geographical affinity to Kasiya of the bwalo la nyau to which they belong.

In the end:

1. The northerners did not grab the Mumba carrot dangled to them and rejected Chakwera’s brand of tribalism, incompetence, and lies.

2. His fellow Chewa folks disowned him as a lost and misguided child.

3. The southerners just watched him implode in a toxic pile of unenforced errors of judgement.