Mutharika Likely to Scoop 93.5% Votes in Ntcheu in the Malawi Presidential Contest (May 2025 ROTG Survey)

According to Reality On The Ground (ROTG) Survey conducted in May, 2025, Former President Peter Mutharika edges the State President Lazarus Chakwera of Malawi congress party by 93.5% among likely voters in Ntcheu district including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.

Reality on the Ground ROTG conducted a survey in the district to determine the most two popular candidates and the one likely to win if elections were held in May 2025.

The district has a total of 172,793 registered voters of which ROTG took a slightly larger sample size of 1200 male and female old and young registered voters from all areas in the district.

1122 registered voters out of sample size 1200 which represent 93.5% said will vote for Professor Peter Mutharika of Democratic Progressive party.
67 registered voters which represent 5.58% sample size said will vote for President Chakwera of Malawi Congress Party MCP.
11 registered voters, which represent 0.91% said would vote for Dalitso Kabambe of UTM.

Most Voters Know for Whom They Plan to Vote

80% of registered voters in the district, including 86% of likely voters, say they know the candidate they plan to support and will not change their mind.
15% of registered voters have a good idea of the candidate for whom they plan to vote but could change their mind. Five percent have not made up their mind.
Mutharika’s supporters (85%) are more likely than Chakwera’s supporters (79%) to say they have made up their mind and will not change it prior to voting.

More Than Three in Four people of Ntcheu Confident in Election Integrity

76% of the people in Ntcheu say they are very confident or confident that Malawi Electrol Commission and its chairperson will carry out a fair and accurate election this September. 24% are not very confident or not confident at all that an accurate election will be held.

Methodology

This Ntcheu survey was conducted April 27th through May 15th, 2025 by the most trusted Reality on the Ground Poll sponsored in partnership with our friends who love democracy. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the district were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online and face to face.

Results for all adults are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. Results for registered voters are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points.
Likely voters include registered voters who report they are voting in this year’s election.

Remember Chigayo chilibe speaker komanso iron imasita pamene ikutentha. Truth pains unfortunately this is the reality on the ground
ROTG can be contacted on 0995760033 email kbwanali@hotmail.com

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